Posted by: ckckred | February 20, 2012

Oscar Predictions: The Artist reigns

For the Oscars next week, I’ll be publishing my predictions now (with the help of award site Gold Derby.  I wouldn’t know what to do without you).  I predict a sweep for The Artist this year, and Hugo will probably take home the visual and technological awards.  Here are my predictions.

BEST PICTURE

“The Artist” Thomas Langmann, Producer

“The Descendants” Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers

“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” Scott Rudin, Producer

“The Help” Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers

“Hugo” Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers

“Midnight in Paris” Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers

“Moneyball” Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers

“The Tree of Life” Nominees to be determined

“War Horse” Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers

Should Win: The Descendants

Will Win: The Artist

The Descendants was my favorite film of the year, but The Artist is more groundbreaking, and the Oscars admire that.  This film is going to sweep the night away.

BEST DIRECTOR

Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”)

Alexander Payne (“The Descendants”)

Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”)

Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”)

Terrence Malick (“The Tree of Life”)

Should Win: Alexander Payne

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius

I might be saying this because I loved The Descendants, but I really want to see Payne win.  He’s never won Best Director before, and he’s a vastly underappreciated director.  But Hazanavicius managed to make a great silent film in the year 2011.  That’s something to be admired upon.

BEST ACTOR

Demián Bichir (“A Better Life”)

George Clooney “The Descendants”)

Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”)

Gary Oldman (“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”)

Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”)

Should Win: Tie (George Clooney and Jean Dujardin)

Will Win: Jean Dujardin

I put a tie on this one because I keep changing my mind on who deserves to win.  For a long time people predicted for this to go to Clooney, but the SAG and BAFTAs have probably turned around the Oscars mind.  I say Dujardin will win over, kind of like how Robert Benigni won over Tom Hanks and Edward Norton in 1998.

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”)

Viola Davis (“The Help”)

Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”)

Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”)

Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”)

Should/Will Win: Viola Davis

Davis had the best performance here, and I really don’t want Meryl Streep to win another award (it’s getting really boring seeing how many awards and nominations she has).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh (“My Week with Marilyn”)

Jonah Hill (“Moneyball”)

Nick Nolte (“Warrior”)

Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”)

Max von Sydow (“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”)

I’m not putting a should/will win here because I didn’t see Beginners, My Week with Marilyn, or Warrior.  I’m guessing Plummer, who has swept every Best Supporting Actor award.  And even though I liked Jonah Hill in Moneyball, it’d be the Academy’s biggest shame to have the headlines “Jonah Hill wins Oscar” the next day.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Bérénice Bejo (“The Artist”)

Jessica Chastain (“The Help”)

Melissa McCarthy (“Bridesmaids”)

Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobbs”)

Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)

Should/Will Win: Octavia Spencer

It’s kind of hard to judge a role like Melissa McCarthy’s against one like Janet McTeer’s.  But I think it’s unanimous for critics that Spencer should (and will) win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“The Descendants”: Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash

“Hugo”: Screenplay by John Logan

“The Ides of March”:  Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon

“Moneyball”: Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin

“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”: Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan

Should/Will Win: The Descendants

Quick fun fact: did you know Jim Rash of Community co-wrote The Descendants?  It had the best script of the year.  There’s a chance Moneyball could win (Sorkin won last year for The Social Network), but I think the Academy will lean towards The Descendants.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“The Artist”: Written by Michel Hazanavicius

“Bridesmaids”: Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig

“Margin Call”: Written by J.C. Chandor

“Midnight in Paris”: Written by Woody Allen

“A Separation”: Written by Asghar Farhadi

Should Win: The Artist

Will Win: Midnight in Paris

The Artist had a fantastic story, but I think voters might be turned off because it’s a silent film, and they think spoken dialogue matters for that.  So Midnight in Paris will take the cake instead.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“Bullhead” Belgium

“Footnote” Israel

“In Darkness” Poland

“Monsieur Lazhar” Canada

“A Separation” Iran

Haven’t heard of most of these films except for The Seperation.  I say that’ll win.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“A Cat in Paris” Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli

“Chico & Rita” Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal

“Kung Fu Panda 2″ Jennifer Yuh Nelson

“Puss in Boots” Chris Miller

“Rango” Gore Verbinski

Should/Will Win: Rango

This is the first time Pixar hasn’t been nominated, which clears up the field.  The swashbuckling western comedy Rango is by far the best here.  The only other competition it had was from The Adventures of Tintin.  And that wasn’t even nominated.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Hell and Back Again” Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner

“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front” Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman

“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs

“Pina” Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel

“Undefeated” TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

These are not great nominations, mostly due to the new rules the Oscars put on the Documentary category.  The award is probably going to be Paradise Lost 3.

BEST ART DIRECTION

“The Artist” Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan

“Hugo” Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo

“Midnight in Paris” Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil

“War Horse” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Should/Will Win: Hugo

All of these films have great sets and production, but I can’t say no to that train station from Scorsese’s new masterpiece.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“The Artist” Guillaume Schiffman

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Jeff Cronenweth

“Hugo” Robert Richardson

“The Tree of Life” Emmanuel Lubezki

“War Horse” Janusz Kaminski

Should Win: Tie (War Horse, The Tree of Life)

Will Win: The Tree of Life

This is the second tie here.  Both War Horse and The Tree of Life have beautiful cinematography.  But I’m guessing The Tree of Life will be the champ here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Anonymous” Lisy Christl

“The Artist” Mark Bridges

“Hugo” Sandy Powell

“Jane Eyre” Michael O’Connor

“W.E.” Arianne Phillips

Should/Will Win: The Artist

The delightful costumes from The Artist in both the movie sets and the streets blew me away.  Hugo is the only nominee that comes close here.

BEST EDITING

“The Artist” Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius

“The Descendants” Kevin Tent

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall

“Hugo” Thelma Schoonmaker

“Moneyball” Christopher Tellefsen

Should/Will Win: The Artist

Beautifully cut and pieced together (that’s a compliment in the field of editing), The Artist deserves the award (sorry The Descendants and Hugo).

BEST MAKEUP

“Albert Nobbs” Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng

“The Iron Lady” Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Should/Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

It’s a little surprising the Harry Potter films have received 0 wins in the Oscars thus far.  I think it’d change this year.  (Update: Now it looks in favor of The Iron Lady)

BEST SCORE

“The Adventures of Tintin” John Williams

“The Artist” Ludovic Bource

“Hugo” Howard Shore

“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” Alberto Iglesias

“War Horse” John Williams

Should/Will Win: The Artist

Though I’d love to see John Williams win the Oscar, I can’t say no to The Artist, which has a beautiful accompaniment.

BEST SONG

“Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets” Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie

“Real in Rio” from “Rio” Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett

Should/Will Win: The Muppets

The least nominations for this category in history (and they’re not even going to perform them this year at the awards) is kind of a shame.  I say go with The Muppets.

BEST SOUND EDITING

“Drive” Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Ren Klyce

“Hugo” Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl

“War Horse” Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

Should Win: War Horse

Will Win: Hugo

I should be rooting for Drive, which only got this nomination in the entire Oscars.  But I liked the sound of War Horse and I read an interesting article about it in the New York Times.  But I’m guessing Hugo will win.

BEST SOUND MIXING

“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson

“Hugo” Tom Fleischman and John Midgley

“Moneyball” Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin

“War Horse” Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson

Should Win: War Horse

Will Win: Hugo

Pretty much the same thing I said about Sound Editing applies here too.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″ Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson

“Hugo” Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning

“Real Steel” Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett

“Transformers: Dark of the Moon” Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier

Should Win: Hugo

Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

My favorite part of Hugo (spoiler’s alert) is the ending which featured all of George Méliès’ films in 3-D.  But Rise of the Planet of the Apes will win because of those fantastic motion effects with the apes.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

“Dimanche/Sunday” Patrick Doyon

“The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore” William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg

“La Luna” Enrico Casarosa

“A Morning Stroll” Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe

“Wild Life” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

I’ve seen none of these films, but judging by Gold Derby, I say go for La Luna.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement” Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin

“God Is the Bigger Elvis” Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson

“Incident in New Baghdad”James Spione

“Saving Face” Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom” Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Like the Best Animated Short category, I’ve seen none of these films.  Gold Derby says The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom so go for that.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

“Pentecost” Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane

“Raju” Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren

“The Shore” Terry George and Oorlagh George

“Time Freak” Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey

“Tuba Atlantic” Hallvar Witzø

Do I really need to repeat myself about the shorts?  Gold Derby says Pentecost, so guess that.

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