Posted by: ckckred | December 28, 2011

Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

No, I have not seen all these films, because they’re not playing in a theater close to me or I didn’t have enough time to see it.  But thanks to Gold Derby (I don’t know what I would do without you), I can finalize a list, though it would be partially my own opinion.  The list will be in order from most likely to least likely.

1. The Artist: One of the best received films of the year, this silent film managed to top The Descendants this year as the most likely to get nominated, and maybe the most likely to win.

2. The Descendants: A family drama with bits of comedy that was named best film of the year by multiple critics, including Steven Holden at The New York Times has always stayed near the top of the list.  Plus with big names like George Clooney and Alexander Payne, how could it not get nominated?

3. War Horse:  Steven Spielberg’s film about a boy looking for his horse, who has been shipped to World War I, has made many top ten lists, usually ranking between two and five.  And though it didn’t get a best director nomination at the Golden Globes, it doesn’t look like it hurt the film’s chances.

4. Hugo: When Hugo first came out, most people thought it wasn’t going to make this list.  But then when it did, it received tremendously positive reviews, and this managed to boost the film to the top four.

5. The Help/Moneyball (Tie): This one is hard to predict, especially since the number five spot usually also means a best director nomination.  Moneyball has many big names attached, including Brad Pitt and Aaron Sorkin.  But many critics were pleasantly surprised by The Help, and that could boost the film over Moneyball.

7. Midnight in Paris: Not only is the film Woody Allen’s bet in years, but the Golden Globe nomination for best director might bolster it up in case if voters can’t decide between The Help and Moneyball.

8. Tree of Life: The winner of the Cannes film festival usually gets a nomination.  For example, 2009’s The Hurt Locker was nominated.  So I’m guessing this film will be too.

9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: For a long time, this has ranked in the top five, but it hasn’t seemed to gather up many nominations thus far.  The film may get the J. Edgar effect where a film that looks like a contender move out the field.  Maybe it’s because most voters want to ignore the subject of 9/11.  But a cast featuring Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock and a script from Eric Roth still might make the top ten.

10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: Though the film had a disappointing opening, strong reviews, hype from the books, and David Fincher should get this film a nomination.



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